“This is an apple.
Some people might try to tell you that it’s a banana.
They might scream “Banana, banana, banana” over and over and over again.
They might put BANANA all in capital letters.
You might even start to believe that this is a banana.
But it’s not.
This is an apple.” TV commercial.
But you never know. Or do you?
Those of you who have read George Orwell’s famous novel 1984 might recall how the totalitarian government controlled its citizens by using “doublethink”, a type of brainwashing that got people to believe things that were contradictory and untrue by relentlessly bombarding them with misinformation.
There is no question that George Orwell invented “fake news” long before Donald Trump did. And that was years before social media was even dreamt of. Back then, during Orwell’s lifetime, the fear was that people would come to believe lies told to them through official news media channels. Today, of course, the internet is awash with a million other places where a reader can be tricked or converted, even radicalized.
The web has also become an incubator for conspiracy theories. And not just the age-old crackpot ones.
• The Moon landing was faked
• 9/11 was actually done by the CIA
• 5G towers cause coronavirus
• The world is run by a powerful group of shape-shifting lizards called the Illuminati
At least they are laughable enough to considered unlikely by most normal people. Perhaps more worryingly though, the echo chambers of the internet can spawn and spread smaller, but equally untrue, myths and misunderstandings. Not so much about grand evil plots. More like urban legends. Stories that sound like they could be true, but actually are not. There are countless sites designed to draw people in with seemingly credible “news”, but which then take them down a rabbit hole to increasingly unhinged notions and theories.
Facebook groups dedicated to sharing those stories that “the authorities don’t want you to know.” Whatsapp and Twitter and Tik Tok posts, all seductive in their proposition that you are hearing or seeing the “actual story” through them, without having to believe more reputable media who rather inconveniently have to be able to prove the things they say. Or worse still, without having to do any proper research yourself.
Case in point. Last year, a man won a large amount of money from a lottery in South Africa. It was a nationwide lottery, just like you see in most countries in the world. Go to a local store, chose six numbers, pay for your ticket, then wait for the live draw on TV next week. So far, so ordinary.
Except that when the numbers were read out, this man won with the numbers: five, six, seven, eight, nine, and – you guessed it – ten. In that order. To which the whole of South Africa said, “You what?”
In fact, thanks to the speed and the reach of the internet, the whole world was soon saying “You what?”. “That’s not possible – it was a set up” they screamed in the blogs. “Conspiracy – the draw was rigged.” the Facebook forums cried. “Impossible – what are the odds?” trended on Twitter. Well, good question.
Thankfully, none of you are foolish enough to fall for the notion that it was a fraud or a conspiracy, because you all paid attention in Maths classes at HGS. Therefore, you know that, in fact, the odds on that sequence of numbers are no different than any other six numbers being drawn in any other order.
“What are the odds?” asked those outraged keyboard warriors. Well, the chance of any particular number being drawn is one in 40, so the chance of any six specific numbers being drawn is one in 40 to the power of six. Or a little over one in 3.8 million.
Sounds a lot, but in fact it is exactly the same chance as any other set of six numbers coming up. No set is more probable or improbable than any other. The apparent significance of 5,6,7,8,9,10 lies in our perception of those numbers, not in the numbers themselves.
Yet thousands of people were happy to ignore their own common sense and chose to swallow a bit of doublethink instead. “I saw it on the web, so it must be true.”
Even if you are not particularly mathematically minded (like me), surely the fact that the numbers were so obvious would have made you a little suspicious about the rigged lottery theory. Which cunning mastermind criminal would have drawn attention to themselves like that? Stopping for a moment to consider the likelihood of that, to perhaps even remember a bit of what you learned in probability classes, would have saved embarrassment.
Here in the UK, the Royal Society is the oldest national scientific institution in the world. Founded in 1660 by King Charles II to promote science and its benefits. It also educates and engages the public in scientific knowledge. The Royal Society’s Latin motto is ‘Nullius in verba’. Meaning, ‘take nobody’s word for it’. Put another way, rely on evidence to make decisions. Preferably evidence that you have uncovered.
I am not anti the internet, of course I am not. It is arguably the greatest research tool that human beings have ever created. But it is not the only research tool, and it is most certainly NOT filled exclusively with facts and truth. Before he died in 1973, Pablo Picasso was once offered what was then a miraculous invention, a new-fangled device called a computer. But he rejected the offer, saying “Computers are useless – all they can give me is answers.” He meant, I think, that you should learn to question properly before you passively accept what is presented to you as the ‘only’ answer.
What every member of staff at HGS is trying to teach you while you are here, is to think for yourselves. Of course, your opinions and beliefs will be influenced by what you read online. But be judicious. ‘Nullius in verba’. Take no one person’s word for it. Especially if they tell you again and again and again, with All CAPS and lots of exclamation marks. Allow your intelligence, your intuition and your common sense, to assess what you are being told, before you accept it.
The next time the internet tells you something is a banana, don’t assume it so just because it is online. Instead, use your excellent HGS education and do a little taste test of your own.
Food for thought.
Stay well and safe.
Be kind to yourself and others.
Best wishes,
Dr Bird
